Population Projections

Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population.  They are based on mid-year population estimates and a set of assumptions for future fertility, mortality and migration, and are produced every two years by the Office for National Statistics. The projections are widely used for resource allocation and planning. The projections are produced every two years. The latest 2016-based projections were published in May 2018.

Population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact of future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that may influence demographic behaviour.

Dudley Borough Population Projections

• The latest projections for Dudley Borough predict the population will grow from 317,600 in 2016 to 336,900 in 2041, an increase of 6.1%.  This is just over half the predicted increase for England of 12.1% over the same period.

• Between 2016 and 2041 there is a large predicted increase in the Borough's older age groups, particularly from the 70-74 year age group upwards.  This is even more pronounced in the 90 and over age group where the male population is predicted to more than triple and the female population almost double. 

• These changes are the result of the aging of those aged 45-49 and 50-54 in 2016 (born during the 1960's 'baby boom') and a larger proportion of people living to a much older age.  Conversely, in 2041 the 45-49 and 50-54 age groups are predicted to be smaller than those seen in 2016.

Population 2016 and 2041 Projection

Population Projections by Life Stage

• For Dudley Borough a population increase in all life stages is predicted by 2041.  The pensionable age for 2016 is based on males aged 65 and over and females aged 64 and over, with the anticipated statutory pension age of 67 and over for both sexes used for the 2041 projected pensionable population.

• The largest increase will be seen in those of pensionable age due to people living longer lives.  This is despite people reaching the pensionable life stage at a later age in 2041.

• There is a smaller predicted increase in working age adults, however some of this can be attributed to the anticipated changes in the state pension age, which will mean adults being classified as working age for a longer period in 2041.

Population by Life Stage 2016 and 2041 Projection